MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH

A team of global economists conduct proprietary research on economic developments, monetary policies, and market trends to support our investment process.

Expert Macro Assessments

Every day, PGIM's economists assess macro fundamentals and risks, across multiple categories of fixed income market impactors, including:

Growth and inflation dynamics

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • Gross National Income (GNI)

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Demographics

 

Relating to populations and/or particular groups within them and their respective impacts on country-specific and global macroeconomics.

Global savings and investment backdrop

  • Current account balances

  • Direct investment (FDI)

  • Portfolio investments

Potential global systemic risks

Across a broad range of categories, including but not limited to:

  • natural disasters

  • weather events

  • changes in interest rates

  • conflict

Policy outlook

  • Central bank frameworks and reaction functions

  • Fiscal policy trends

  • Regulatory policy developments

Domestic and internal imbalances

  • Credit growth and debt level metrics (e.g., households, corporates, the financial sector, government/sovereign credit risk, etc.)

  • Sectoral imbalances (e.g., households)

External imbalances

  • Current account balance of payments

  • Foreign portfolio investment flows and foreign direct investment flows

We are Living Through a Time of Profound Structural Change that Loosens Global Macroeconomic Anchors

Intensified Great Power Competition

  • More frequent conflict & proxy wars
  • More frequent and potent use of economic statecraft
  • Less cross-border risk management

Unprecedented Political Polarization

  • Erosion of political center
  • Less orthodox policy; occasional radicalism
  • Institutional decay; less policy credibility  

Transition from Fossil Fuels to Renewables

  • Higher inflation & inflation expectations
  • Larger fiscal transfers to cushion worst off
  • Winners & losers amid zero sum competition

Supply Chain De-Risking

  • Reorientation around geopolitical alliances
  • Less focus on efficiency; more focus on resilience

Distinct Technological Ecosystems

  • More public investment in foundational technologies, BUT…
  • Fewer positive spillovers from technology diffusion, AND
  • New forms of hybrid warfare using AI, biotech, quantum, etc.

No risk management technique can guarantee the mitigation or elimination of risk in any market environment.

Source: PGIM as of December 31, 2025.

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